sharp Report on NFL games

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NICK BOGDANOVICH is a friend that knows a lot of sharps and has work many sportbooks and was a linemaker in Las Vegas

use this thread to add your report if you got some inside news....Walter group report if you know the time they place a bet...trust me there are players that can move the line...it happen to me back in 2005 when I won $58k in betting....I was hot...24-3 playoff run...it was not me that was moving the line...it was the ones that was following me....look at it this way....I posted a play and I use to get 50,000 view a week in my "exbookie wants to help the player thread".....500 players putting a avg of $300 on a play = $150,000 within 1 hour after I posted it...that move the line 1 point or the vig move up....so it can happen


this thread is yours...if you got something big...PM me...back in 2005 someone told me about the motor city bowl and I posted it on this forum...I knew when the QB was going out of the game and all the in's and out's

you want a friend for life....share something like this on a pm...and I will share my whole world with you...<><>

 

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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS YEAR
ABOUT THE AFC NORTH
Cincinnati of the AFC North opens the NFL Preseason Sunday Night against the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game on NBC. I had planned to run some reports this summer about what the sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) are thinking about each of the eight NFL divisions. This seemed like as good a time as any to get started.
Cincinnati won the AFC North last year, and added Terrell Owens in the offseason. Despite that, they're not considered by the market to be the best team in the division in 2010. As I told you several days ago, the 'regular season win'props put it this way:
Baltimore 9.5-10 wins
Pittsburgh 8.5 wins
Cincinnati 8-8.5 wins
Cleveland 5.5 wins
Cincinnati is seen as a team that played a bit over their heads last year...and one that was exposed as a pretender in the latter stages of the season. Remember how bad they looked last December? In the playoffs, they were taken out by the Jets and a rookie quarterback on their home field.
Now, the Bengals ARE getting respect from sharps in Sunday Night's Preseason opener. The line opened Dallas by 1 awhile ago. Cincinnati surged all the way to a 3-point favorite based on the following:
*The acquisition of Owens
*Home 'state'advantage with the game in Ohio
*Reports that they were taking the game seriously
*Analysis from sharps that Cincy had more potent backup QB's
I should say though that the line stopped moving at Cincy -3. I even saw some inching back in places on Saturday. Some sharps will take underdogs of 3 or more in the Preseason almost automatically (particularly on a neutral field). So, those looking to bet the dog figured +3 was the best they'd get...and they started making their presence felt in the market over the weekend.
In terms of the regular season, this is what I'm hearing from sharps:
*BALTIMORE is getting a lot of talk as a potential AFC champion, let alone division champion. There hasn't been much movement in the moneyline prices thus far. I did see Under 10, -130 drop to -120 at an offshore store. If it's becoming less expensive to bet Under 10, there's a sentiment for the Over. I personally don't know of any sharps who are looking for a bad year from the Ravens. Those looking for a good year are still trying to figure out the best way to bet big money on their opinion (limits are low still on the win props).
*PITTSBURGH is being left alone until word becomes official on the suspension of Ben Roethlisberger. He's currently out for six games, but many expect that to be reduced down to four games. Obviously, if you're thinking about betting a regular season win prop, that's a big deal!
*CINCINNATI is largely a 'go against'team in the minds of many sharps I've talked to. They weren't as good as their final record last year. Owens didn't help the Bills last year, so why will he help the Bengals this year? Plus, Carson Palmer looks to have lost some (or most) of his magic. We did see a bit of a move in favor of the Bengals on the moneylines just after the Owens acquisition. Some of that was public action from locals thinking the team was going to get better. Sharps are more skeptical right now.
*CLEVELAND will have a new quarterback, and is now being run by Mike Holmgren in the front office rather than a collection of question marks. Sharps have respect for Holmgren, but they're not ready to ask the Browns to jump from 4-12 up to 6-10, which is what it would take to win an Over 5.5 bet on the win totals. I'm sensing very much of a 'wait and see'attitude from sharps about the Browns.

 

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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS YEAR
ABOUT THE NFC EAST
The Dallas Cowboys looked pretty good Sunday Night in their Preseason opener against the Cincinnati Bengals. It's true that the offense only accounted for three field goals. They moved the fall fairly well to get those points though, considering they hadn't been in training camp very long.
*Dallas won First Downs 17-10
*Dallas won Total Yards 297-179
*Dallas played with energy, enthusiasm, and confidence. It may not matter much in the big picture if you DON'T see that in a preseason game involving a playoff contender. Sometimes they save their energy for September. It's rarely a bad sign though when there's such good body language from a team in this kind of game. I've developed an eye for that because sportsbooks are often so loud that I'm watching the games without hearing the announcers (usually a good thing!).
I liked what I saw from Dallas this past Sunday. I'm experienced enough to know that the Hall of Fame game won't matter at all once the regular season is here. It's just great to have some football to watch and study again.
Sharps (professional wagerers) were certainly watching and studying. Many don't make formal moves against the Regular Season Win propositions until they've seen a few preseason games. The NFC East is a fun division to contemplate this year once again. All four teams are supposed to be pretty good. It wouldn't be a shock if any made the playoffs.
Here are the current market projections:
Dallas: 10-10.5 wins
NY Giants: 8.5 wins
Philadelphia: 8.5 wins
Washington: 7.5 wins
Here's what the sharps are thinking about each team based on conversations I've been having with guys I respect this summer:
*DALLAS is the team to beat, but it's hard to project a huge win total in such a competitive division. In fact, the Under bet at 10.5 wins is -150 on the moneyline. You can go Over 10 wins at -130. I have to say that the mood has shifted a bit from last year. Tony Romo was seen as erratic, and a bit too prone to off-the-field misadventures. Wade Phillips was seen as a coach who was just as likely to screw things up as make things better. Owner Jerry Jones is always a Wildcard. Last year's performance impressed many sharps, even if the playoffs ended badly with a blowout loss at Minnesota. Let me say it this way...there's less skepticism about Dallas this year than there was last year. That may not result in bets on the Cowboys from sharps. It may result in less bets against them.
*NEW YORK is a slight favorite to go Over 8.5 wins, with moneylines generally in the -120 to -130 range right now. Sharps were very surprised the defense fell apart last year. This was really noticeable in big games against the best quarterbacks. The Giants used to be a defensive juggernaut. But, their stars got old, and their defensive coordinator moved to St. Louis. Nobody's talking about the Giants now because the Jets are making so much news. My take is that sharps are looking to bet Overs in Giants games figuring the defense will still struggle, but Eli Manning will put points on the board. I'm not hearing much love for a bounce-back year in terms of wins and losses.
*PHILADELPHIA is basically pick-em right now at the 8.5 mark, which is why I ranked them behind the Giants. They're fractionally worse in terms of expectations. Sharps can only guess about Kevin Kolb as the new starting quarterback. He's an unknown quantity to say the least. Sharps like betting on or against known quantities! This is a team that sharps will watch closely to get a read on out of the gate. If Kolb looks like he's going to be the next Aaron Rodgers, they'll jump in at affordable prices. If he's nervous under the increased pressure, they'll go the other way. One of the biggest factors that separates sharps from squares is PATIENCE! Don't bet on a guess. Wait until you know something, then bet.
*WASHINGTON has a new look this year with head coach Mike Shanahan and quarterback Donovan McNabb. Under 7.5 wins is a slight favorite in the -120 to -130 range...but we're talking about a team that went 4-12 last year! That's a lot of respect in the market for the impact Shanahan and McNabb may have. Veteran sharps had similar strategies with both those guys in the past. They didn't really trust either as a favorite, but liked taking them as underdogs. I expect that to be the strategy this year. Give Shanahan and McNabb points, and sharps will gladly take them. Ask them to win big? Sharps will need to see some blowouts before getting involved. And, sharps tend not to bet on favorites even if they see some blowouts! I could see Washington getting sharp attention as short favorites...but not too much beyond a field goal.
This is projected to be the tightest division top to bottom of the eight NFL groups. It's also projected to be the strongest with a last place team at 7.5 wins (the AFC South also has that with Jacksonville, but the Under is a bigger favorite with the Jaguars).

 

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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS YEAR
ABOUT THE NFC SOUTH
The defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints take the field for the first time this season Thursday Night against New England in a big TV game. That makes it the perfect time to go over what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking this year about the Saints division, the NFC South.
New Orleans surprised a lot of people going 12-4 last season. It's not that people didn't think they were any good. They were expecting a 9-10 win season for the most part. The popular choices to win the NFC were Dallas, Philadelphia, and even Minnesota during the season once Brett Favre was on a roll. New Orleans was supposed to be one of those teams that ran up the score on losers, but didn't know how to win the big one.
They won out of the gate...and kept right on winning until very late in the season. Once the playoffs started, they ran the table and took the Lombardi Trophy back to the Big Easy.
You might be surprised to learn that the Regular Season Win total for the Saints is just 10.5 wins. They certainly played better than that in 2009. But, the market almost always expects a regression to the mean for elite teams. You have to figure injuries will be a bigger issue. And, the bounce of the ball may not favor the Saints the same way in close games.
Here are the projections for the NFC South as a whole...
New Orleans 10.5 wins
Atlanta 8.5 to 9 wins
Carolina 7 to 7.5 wins
Tampa Bay 5.5 wins
Believe it or not, the Under is actually a small favorite right now on that 10.5 for the Saints. You can get even money or +110 or so betting the Over. You have to lay around -130 to bet Under 10.5 wins. The moneylines are currently favoring Atlanta Over, Carolina Under 7.5 but Over 7, and Tampa Bay Over 5.5 wins. You have to pay extra juice if you want to bet in those directions.
What do sharps think? Sharps have been hitting Atlanta Over with some confidence. In fact, you'd be hardpressed to find many 8.5's any more. I've seen one offshore where you have to pay a whopping -210 to take the Over. Sharps like Matt Ryan at quarterback. They believe if the Saints are due to fall back to earth some the Falcons are the team best suited to move up. And, Atlanta went 9-7 anyway last year...which is right at the market price. Any improvement, and you've got a winner!
In my discussions with sharps, I'm hearing skepticism about Carolina's quarterback situation, and skepticism about Tampa Bay's head coach. Sharps believe the market has fairly priced those teams at this point. Only big name injuries or line moves from public action would get them to jump in right now.
Remember that sharps tend to play more Unders than Overs with this kind of prop. So, betting Over with Atlanta is an endorsement to be sure. I believe sharps will be looking to go against the Saints in regular season games against public-inflated prices. They'd rather do that than try to squeeze Under 10.5 wins with a team that won so often last year. They'll be playing a wait and see game with Carolina and Tampa Bay.
I've already looked at the AFC Central and NFC East in recent days (please check the archives if you missed those articles). Next up will be the NFC West on Saturday. Note that defending divisional champion Arizona opens its season that night. This year's favorite San Francisco debuts against Indianapolis on Sunday.

 

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WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS YEAR ABOUT THE NFC NORTH
Probably like you, sharps (professional bettors) are tired of hearing all the talk about Brett Favre. The main positive they see out of that angle is that the networks, and therefore the wagering public, aren't thinking enough about the Green Bay Packers, and the Chicago Bears.
Both of those teams could take a step forward this year in a way that can exploit media-hyped lines.
Why is that?

• Green Bay closed the season very well last year, and many sharps saw them as the team to beat in the NFC Playoffs. The Packers defense inexplicably fell apart on the road against Arizona in the first round. Sharps are optimistic that Green Bay can win enough this year to earn some home field in the playoffs. If that happens, then you've got teams like New Orleans, Dallas, or Minnesota having to play on the frozen tundra in January rather than in cushy domes.
• Chicago wasn't as bad as it seemed last year, quietly making it to 7-9. Everyone was treating them like a 4-12 team because Jay Cutler didn't set the world on fire. He did get them close to .500 though. Now, Mike Martz has been hired as coordinator to juice up the offense even more. Chicago is usually a public team that doesn't offer value. The squares have drifted away from betting the Bears a little in recent years, providing a window of opportunity if Martz is able to create improvement.

So, the sharps don't really mind if ESPN wants to talk about Brett Favre all the time. They'll turn the TV off, then wait patiently for their chance to make some money.
Here's how the market has the NFC North pegged in terms of Regular Season win projections.
Green Bay 9½
Minnesota 9½
Chicago 7½ to 8
Detroit 5 to 5½
Favorite juice on the moneylines is being charged on the Over for Green Bay, Over 7.5 but Under 8 on Chicago, and Under 5.5 but Over 5 for Detroit.
Note that Green Bay is technically the favorite in the division because juice is as high as -150 on the Over at 9½ Minnesota is near pick-em at that line.
Clearly some sharps got the Over at 9½ and drove the price up a bit. Sharps bet Chicago Over 7½, but not Over 8. It's tough to ask two teams in the same division to win Over bets for you because you have to hope they don't do too much damage to each other. Plus, sharps tend to prefer Under bets to Over bets anyway on the win props. The action we did see represents some strong sentiment in that light.
Regarding Minnesota, the sharps don't want to take any stands until they see for sure what shape Brett Favre will be in at the start of the season if he is going to play. Most of the guys I talked to would be looking Under 9½ if he officially announced his retirement and made it sound like he really meant it!
Detroit is supposed to improve this year. Will they improve from 2-14 all the way up to 5-11 or 6-10? Sharps aren't buying it for now. They don't have faith yet in the head coach or young quarterback. Should the Lions show promise early, sharps will take the points with them as long as there's value. Sometimes an up-and-coming team will string together covers because the markets just won't take them seriously. Detroit is certainly a nominee to do that given the fact that everyone's had some time together now, and expectations are so low. Sharps will wait to see improvement before they put the Lions on their "live dog" list.

 

[sirjago]

ACE , do you have the report of rest of the teams ?

 

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BALTIMORE AT NY JETS: Sharps don't think much of the Jets offense. That hasn't changed from last season. The opener was Jets -3, with a total of 37½. We're now seeing Jets by just 2½ and a total of 35½. Baltimore is a popular teaser choice too because every point you move the line is more valuable in a low scoring game. It will be interesting to see what the public does on game day Monday, with the Jets appearing on HBO's "Hard Knocks" all summer.
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY: Support on Kansas City has brought the line down from San Diego -5½ to San Diego -4½. I mentioned during my summer divisional write-ups that many sharps are skeptical about San Diego this year, and looking for value with Oakland and Kansas City in the AFC West. That showed up here as KC money.